Being contained by the long term key resistance at 1.3015 (Oct 28, 2008 high), USDCAD pulls back from 1.2973, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed. Consolidation in a range between 1.2500 and 1.2973 is expected before breaking above 1.3015 level. Further rise would more likely be seen after consolidation, and a break above 1.3015 level will signal the resumption of the long term uptrend from 0.9056 (2007 low). However, below 1.2500 will indicate that the pair is back to range trading between 1.1464 (Nov 5, 2008 low) and 1.3015.
EURUSD rebounds from 1.2456 and breaks above the resistance of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart, suggesting that the short term downtrend from 1.2898 has completed. Consolidation in a range between 1.2456 and 1.2700 could be seen in a couple of days. As long as 1.2700 level holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and deeper decline is possible to 1.2400 zone. However, above 1.2700 will indicated that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.2456 level on 4-hour chart, and then further rally could be seen to test 1.2991 medium term key resistance.
USDJPY breaks above 98.70 resistance, suggesting that the medium term uptrend from 87.12 (Jan 21 low) has resumed. Further rally is expected to test 100.50 resistance in a couple of days. Initial support is now at 98.50, as long as this level holds, we’d expect the short term uptrend from 96.84 to continue. Medium term key support is located at 96.84, below this level will indicate that the rise from 87.12 has completed.
GBPUSD rebounds from 1.3957 and is testing the resistance of the price channel on 4-hour chart. As long as the channel resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume, and one more fall towards 1.3700-50 area is still possible. Key resistance is located at 1.4383, above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.4985 has completed.
AUDUSD rebounds from 0.6284 and breaks above 0.6462 key resistance, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom has been formed and the fall from 0.6849 (Feb 9 high) has completed at 0.6284 level. Further rise is now in favor and target would be at 0.6700-50 area. Key support is now located at 0.6284, only fall below this level signal deeper decline to 0.6100 zone.
USDCHF failed to test 1.1883 previous high resistance and pulled back from 1.1848 level, suggesting that the pair is forming a short term cycle top on 4-hour chart. Key support is located at 1.1600, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top, and then deeper decline could be seen to 1.1200 zone.