Daily Forex Analysis – March 4, 2009

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD breaks below 1.2512 previous low support, suggesting that the short term downtrend from 1.2898 is underway. Deeper decline is expected to 1.2400 zone in a couple of day. Near term resistance is at the upper border of the falling price channel and key resistance is located at 1.2677, as long as this level holds, we’d expect downtrend from 1.2898 to continue, only rise above 1.2677 level will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed and the fall from 1.2898 has completed.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY trades in a narrow range between 96.84 and 98.70. Moving sideways would more likely be seen in a couple of days. The price action from 98.70 is treated as consolidation of the medium uptrend from 87.12 (Jan 21 low). Near term support is located at 96.84 followed by 98.70 and key support is located at 95.00, as long as 95.00 support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume and one more rise to test 100.50 resistance is still possible.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD’s short term uptrend from 1.2356 extends to 1.2973 level. Further rise to test the long term key resistance at 1.3015 (Oct 28, 2008 high) is expected in a couple of days. Near term support is at 1.2806, as long as this level holds, uptrend will continue.


GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD is in short term downtrend from 1.4661. Deeper decline is still possible to 1.3700-50 area. Near term resistance is at the down trend line on 4-hour chart, and key resistance is located at 1.4156, only rise above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.4661 has completed.


AUDUSD Analysis.
Being contained by the previous low support at 0.6248 (Feb 2 low), AUDUSD rebounded from 1.6286 level. However, the pullback from 0.6462 suggests that the pair remains in short term downtrend. Deeper decline is still in favor and the next target would be at 0.6100 zone. Only rise above 0.6462 level will indicate that the fall from 0.6849 has completed.


USDCHF Analysis.
No changed in our view, USDCHF is in short term uptrend from 1.1459. Further rise is expected to test 1.1883 previous high resistance in next several days. A break above this level will signal further rally to 1.2000 zone. Initial support is now at 1.1680, as long as this level holds, we’d expect the uptrend to continue.


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