Daily Forex Analysis – March 6, 2009

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY pulls back sharply from 99.67 level. Moving sideways in a range between 96.84 and 99.67 could be seen in next several days. However, the price action from 98.70 is treated as consolidation of the medium term uptrend from 87.12 (Jan 21 low). As long as 96.84 support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume, and one more rise towards 101.00 is still possible after consolidation. Near term resistance is now at 99.67, about this level will signal the resumption of the uptrend.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD formed a short term cycle top at 1.2973 leve on 4-hour chart. Consolidation in a range between 1.2500 and 1.2973 could be seen in a couple of days. As long as 1.2500 level holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume and further rise above 1.3015 (Oct 28, 2008 high) would more likely be seen after consolidation. However, below 1.2500 will indicate that the pair is back to range trading between 1.1464 (Nov 5, 2008 low) and 1.3015.


EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD remains in medium term downtrend and the price action from 1.2456 is more likely consolidation of the downtrend. Further rise to 1.2700-50 area to reach the next short term cycle top on 4-hour chart is possible in a couple of days. Near term support is located at 1.2456, below this level will signal deeper decline to 1.2400 zone.


GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD remains in short term downtrend. The rebound from 1.3957 is treated as correction of the downtrend. Deeper decline is still possible to 1.3700-50 area after correction, and a break down below 1.3957 level will signal the resumption of the downtrend. Key resistance is located at 1.4383, only rise above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.4985 has completed at 1.3957 level, and the following uptrend will take price back to 1.4750-800 area.


AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD traded in a range between 0.6284 and 0.6553 for several days. Moving sideways without trend in this range is still in favor in a couple of days. As long as 0.6553 resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and deeper decline would more likely be seen to 0.6100-50 area after consolidation. However, above 0.6553 resistance will indicate that the fall from 0.6849 has complted at 0.6284 level.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF is forming a short term cycle top at 1.1848 level on 4-hour chart. Key support is located at 1.1600, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top, and then deeper decline could be seen to 1.1200 zone.


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