Daily Forex Analysis – October 3, 2012

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD stays in a trading range between 0.9780 and 0.9859. Key support is at 0.9780, as long as this level holds, the price action in the range is treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 0.9632, and one more rise towards 0.9900 is still possible. However, a breakdown below 0.9780 will suggest that the upward movement has completed at 0.9859 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back towards 0.9500.

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USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF breaks below the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle top has been formed at 0.9437, and the upward movement from 0.9239 has completed. Further decline to test 0.9239 previous low support could be expected, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the longer term downtrend from 0.9971 (Jul 24 high). Resistance is at 0.9437 only break above this level could trigger another rise to 0.9500 area.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD remains in consolidation of the uptrend from 1.5393 (Jul 12 low). Deeper decline to 1.6050 area to complete the consolidation would likely be seen. Resistance is at 1.6200, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.6500.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD breaks above the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle bottom has been formed at 1.2803, and the downward movement from 1.3171 has completed. Further rise towards 1.3171 previous high could be seen over the next several days. Support is at 1.2803, only break below this level could trigger another fall to 1.2700 area.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD’s downward movement extends to as low as 1.0221. Further decline to test 1.0167 support is possible after a minor consolidation. Resistance is at 1.0325 follow by the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, only a clear break above the trend line could signal completion of the downtrend from 1.0624.

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USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY’s rise from 77.43 extends to as high as 78.30. Further rise is still possible after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 78.50 area. Support levels are at 77.75 and 77.43, only break below these levels could trigger another fall towards 77.00.

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