Daily Forex Analysis – June 29, 2011

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD had formed a cycle bottom at 1.0390 on 4-hour chart. Further rise towards the upper border of the price channel is expected later today. As long as the channel resistance holds, the bounce from 1.0390 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.0773, and one more fall towards 1.0250 is still possible. Only a clear break above the channel could indicate that the fall from 1.0773 had completed at 1.0390 already, then another rise towards 1.1011 previous high could be seen.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF stays below a downtrend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 0.8550. As long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at 0.8200 zone. On the upside, a clear break above the trend line will indicate that the short term downtrend from 0.8550 is complete, then the following upward move could bring price to 0.8500 area.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD pulled back from 0.9912, and the fall extended to as low as 0.9803, suggesting that a cycle top had been formed on 4-hour chart. Deeper decline is still possible in a couple of days, and target would be at the uptrend line from 0.9444 to 0.9669. As long as the trend line support holds, the fall from 0.9912 could be treated as consolidation of uptrend from 0.9444, one more rise towards 1.0000 is still possible after consolidation.


GBPUSD Analysis.
No changed in our view, GBPUSD remains in downtrend from 1.6546, the bounce from 1.5912 is treated as consolidation of downtrend. As long as the trend line resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume, and another fall to 1.5800 area is possible.


EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD failed to break below 1.4073 support, and rebounded from 1.4102. Further rise to test 1.4441 resistance could be seen later today, above this level will target 1.4500-1.4550 area. Initial support is at 1.4290, below this level will indicate that sideways movement is underway, and the trading range would be between 1.4073 and 1.4441.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY broke above 81.05 resistance. Further rise is still possible later today, and next target would be at 81.50-82.00 area. Support is at 80.60, only breakdown below this level could indicate that the rise from 80.00 is complete.