Daily Forex Analysis – June 22, 2011

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD traded in a range between 1.0477 and 1.0715 for several days. Resistance is at the upper border of the price channel on 4-hour chart. As long as the channel resistance holds, the price action in the range is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.0773, and a breakdown below 1.0477 will signal resumption of downtrend. However, a clear break above the channel resistance will indicate that the downtrend from 1.0773 had completed at 1.0477 already, then another rise towards 1.1011 previous high could be seen.


GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD’s rise from 1.6078 extended to as high as 1.6252, however, the rise would possibly be consolidation of downtrend from 1.6546, another fall to re-test 1.6059 is still possible after consolidation. Key resistance is at the downtrend line from 1.6546 to 1.6441, only a clear break above the trend line could trigger another rise towards 1.6745 previous high.


EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD stays above a uptrend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in short term uptrend from 1.4073. Further rise is still possible later today, and next target would be at 1.4500-1.4550 area. Support is at the uptrend line, a clear break below the trend line will indicate that a cycle top is being formed, then another fall to re-test 1.3969 support could be seen.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD is facing the trend line from 0.9444 to 0.9669, as long as the trend line support holds, the price action from 0.9898 is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 0.9444, another rise towards 1.0000 is still possible after consolidation. However, a clear break below the trend line will indicate that the uptrend from 0.9444 had completed at 0.9898 already, then the following downward move could bring price back to 0.9500-0.9600 area.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY had formed a cycle top at 81.05 on 4-hour chart. Now the fall from 81.05 is likely resumption of downtrend. Another fall to re-test 79.58 is expected, a breakdown below this level will target 78.00 area.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF’s fall from 0.8550 extended further to as low as 0.8400. As long as 0.8326 key support holds, the fall is treated as correction of uptrend from 0.8326, and one more rise to 0.8650-0.8700 area is still possible.