Daily Forex Analysis – October 5, 2010

GBPUSD Analysis.
After breaking below the lower border of the price channel on 4-hour chart, GBPUSD moved sideways in a range between 1.5669 and 1.5921. The price action in the trading range is more likely consolidation of uptrend from 1.5296. As long as 1.5669 support holds, another rise towards 1.5997 (Aug 6 high) is still possible after consolidation, and a break above 1.5921 could signal resumption of uptrend. However, a breakdown below 1.5669 key support will indicate that a cycle top has been formed at 1.5921 and the rise from 1.5296 has completed, then the following bearish movement could take price back to 1.5200 area.

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USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF stays below a downtrend line from 1.0624 to 1.0277 and remains in downtrend from 1.1730 (Jun 1 high). As long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend is expected to continue and another fall towards 0.9634 (2008 low) is still possible. Resistance level is at 0.9877 followed by the trend line.

20101005_usdchf_1

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD broke below 1.0191 previous low and reached as low as 1.0179 level. Deeper decline is still possible after a minor consolidation and next target would be at 1.0100 area. Key resistance is at 1.0378, only break above this level could indicate that the fall from 1.0672 is complete.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD broke below the trend line from 0.8860 to 0.9462, suggesting consolidation of uptrend from 0.8771 is underway. Range trading between 0.9550 is possible in a couple of days. As long as 0.9550 level holds, uptrend is expected to resume and another rise towards 0.9849 (2008 high) is still possible. However, below 0.9550 will indicate that the uptrend from 0.8771 has completed at 0.9749 already, then deeper decline could be seen to 0.9300 area.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD is facing the trend line support, a clear break below the trend line will indicate that a cycle top has been formed at 1.3792, then deeper decline could be seen to 1.3500 or even lower. However, as long as the trend line support holds, uptrend is expected to resume and another rise to 1.4000 area is still possible.

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USDJPY Analysis.
Being contained by 82.87 previous low support, USDJPY rebounded from 83.16. However, the bounce from 83.16 is more likely correction of downtrend from 85.92, another fall towards 82.87 is still possible later today, and a break below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 94.98 (May 5 high) has resumed, then further decline towards 79.75 (1995 low) could be seen. Resistance is at 84.00, only break above this level could indicate that a cycle bottom has been formed on 4-hour chart, then further rise towards 85.92 key resistance could be seen.

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