Daily Forex Analysis – August 5, 2010

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF broke above 1.0475 resistance, suggesting that a cycle bottom had been formed at 1.0347 level on 4-hour chart. Further rally is still possible later today and target is to test 1.0675 key resistance. As long as this level holds, the price action in the trading range between 1.0347 and 1.0675 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.1730 (Jun 1 high), one more fall to 1.0200 is still possible after consolidation. However, above 1.0675 will indicate that the fall from 1.1730 had completed at 1.0347 already, then the following upward movement could bring price to 1.1000 area.

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EURUSD Analysis.
Being contained by the upper border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, EURUSD pulled back from 1.3261, suggesting that a cycle top is being formed. Support is at the lower  border of the channel, now at 1.3115, as long as the channel support holds, uptrend from 1.2732 is expected to continue, and another rise to 1.3350 is still possible, however, a clear break below the channel support could indicate that the rise from 1.2732 is complete, then lengthier consolidation of uptrend could be seen.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD may be forming a cycle top at 1.5967 level on 4-hour chart, pullback towards the uptrend line  from 1.5124 to 1.5551 would more likely be seen later today, a clear break below the trend line support (now at 1.5777) will confirm the cycle top, then deeper decline could be seen to 1.5700 area. On the upside, as long as the pair stays above the rising trend line, one more rise to 1.6100 is still possible, and a break above 1.5967 could signal resumption of uptrend.

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USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY bounced strongly from 85.32, suggesting that a cycle bottom is being formed on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 85.32 and 86.87 would more likely be seen in a couple of days. However, the bounce is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 92.88 (Jun 4 high), one more fall towards 84.82 (2009 low) is still possible.

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USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD remains in downtrend from 1.0585 and the fall extends to as low as 1.0162 level. Deeper decline towards 1.0138 (Jun 21 low) is still possible later today, below this level will target 1.0100 area. Resistance is at falling trend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend will continue.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD stays above a uptrend line from 0.8632 to 0.8905, and remains in uptrend. Further rise is still possible later today and next target would be at 0.9300 area. Support is at the trend line, now at 0.9085, only a clear break below the trend line support could indicate that the rise from 0.8632 is complete.

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