Daily Forex Analysis – August 4, 2010

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF traded in a narrow range between 1.0347 and 1.0475. As long as 1.0475 resistance holds, the price action in the trading range is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.0639, and another fall towards 1.0200 area is still possible later today. However, a break above 1.0475 could indicate that a cycle bottom has been formed at 1.0347 level on 4-hour chart, then the following upward movement could bring price back to re-test 1.0675 key resistance.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD stays in a rising price channel and remains in uptrend from 1.2732. Support is at the lower border of the channel, now at 1.3075, as long as the channel support holds, uptrend is expected to continue and next target would be at 1.3350 area. However, a clear break below the channel support could indicate that a cycle top is being formed on 4-hour chart, and the uptrend from 1.2732 is complete, then pullback to 1.3000 area could be seen.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD stays above a rising trend line from 1.5124 to 1.5551 and remains in uptrend from 1.5124. As long as the trend line support (now at 1.5710) holds, we’d expect uptrend to continue and next target would be at 1.6100 area. On the downside, a break below 1.5850 could indicate that a minor consolidation of uptrend is underway, then pullback towards the trend line could be seen.

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USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY’s downtrend from 88.11 extended to as low as 85.61 level. Further fall is still possible later today and next target is to test 84.82 (2009 low) support. Key resistance is at 86.87, only rise above this level could indicate that the downward movement from 88.11 is complete.

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USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD remains in downtrend from 1.0585 and the fall extended to as low as 1.0203. Further decline is still possible later today and next target is to test 1.0138 (Jun 21 low) support. Resistance is at 1.0272, above this level could suggest that lengthier consolidation of downtrend is underway, then further rally could be seen to 1.0300 zone.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD remains in uptrend from 0.8632 and the rise extended to as high as 0.9149 level. Further rise is still possible later today and next target would be at 0.9200 area. Support is at the uptrend line from  0.8632 to 0.8905, now at 0.9050, only a clear break below the trend line support could indicate that the rise from 0.8632 is complete.

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