Daily Forex Analysis – July 19, 2010

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD bounced strongly to as high as 1.0523 last week. Further rise towards 1.0676 previous high is still possible later today, and pullback would more likely be seen before breaking above this level. Key support is now at 1.0500, a breakdown below this level will indicate that a cycle top has been formed on 4-hour chart, then another fall towards 1.0000 could be seen. If 1.0676 key resistance gives way, next target will be at 1.0852 (May 25 high).

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USDJPY Analysis.
As expected, USDJPY broke below 88.96 previous low and reached as low as 86.26 level. Range trading between 86.00 and 87.00 would more likely be seen in a couple of days. As long as 87.00 resistance holds, another fall towards 84.82 (2009 low) is still possible.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
Being contained by 1.5522 (Apr 15 high) key resistance, GBPUSD pulled back from 1.5471 last week. However, the fall is more likely consolidation of uptrend from 1.4230 (May 20 low), as long as 1.5170 support holds, another rise towards 1.5522 is still possible.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD has reached the upper boundary of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart. Minor consolidation of uptrend would more likely be seen in a couple of days, and the trading range would be within 1.2750-1.3006. Support is at the lower boundary of the channel, now at 1.2680, as long as the channel support holds, uptrend is expected to resume and a break above 1.3006 could signal resumption of uptrend.

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USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF is testing the resistance of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart, a clear break above the channel resistance will indicate lengthier consolidation of downtrend is underway, then further rise towards 1.0675 could be seen. However, as long as the channel resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend from 1.1730 to continue, and deeper decline to 1.0300 is still possible in a couple of days.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD breaks below 0.8682 support, suggesting that a cycle top has been formed at 0.8870 level on 4-hour chart and the rise from 0.8315 is complete. Deeper decline is expected in a couple of days and target would be at 0.8400.

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