Daily Forex Analysis – April 30, 2010

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD breaks above the upper border of the falling price channel, suggesting that a cycle bottom has been formed at 0.9134 level on 4-hour chart, and the fall form 0.9381 has completed. Now the bounce from 0.9134 could possibly be resumption of uptrend from 0.8577 (Feb 5 low), however, a break above 0.9381 previous high is needed to confirm the resumption of uptrend. Support levels are 0.9255 and 0.9220, below these levels could bring price back to downtrend 0.9381, then another fall to 0.9100 area could be seen.


GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD bounced from 1.5125, taking price back to a trading range between 1.5125 and 1.5522. However, another fall to the lower border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart is still possible. Key resistance is at 1.5522, only rise above this level could trigger another rally to 1.5700-1.5800 area.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD failed to break above 1.0215 key resistance and pulled back from 1.0196 level, suggesting that a cycle top has be formed on 4-hour chart. Another fall towards 0.9930 support is expected. Resistance is at 1.0075, as long as this level holds, downtrend from 1.0196 will continue.


EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD remains in downtrend from 1.3691 and the bounce from 1.3114 is more likely consolidation of downtrend. Resistance is at the falling trend line on 4-hour chart, now at 1.3310, as long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend will continue. Key resistance is at 1.3415, only rise above this level could indicate that the fall from 1.3691 has completed.


USDJPY Analysis.
No changed in our view, USDJPY traded in a range between 91.60 and 94.68. Another fall to 92.50-93.00 is possible later today. However, the price action from 94.68 is more likely consolidation of uptrend from 88.14 (Mar 4 low), one more rise towards 100.00 is still possible after consolidation, and a break above 94.68 could signal resumption of uptrend.


USDCHF Analysis.
After breaking above 1.0898 (Feb 19 high) resistance, USDCHF pulled back from 1.0923, however, the fall is more likely consolidation of uptrend from 1.0501. Support is at the rising trend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line support holds, uptrend is expected to continue and next target would be at 1.1000 area.


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