Daily Forex Analysis – January 19, 2010

USDCHF Analysis.
Being contained by resistance of the upper border of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart, USDCHF pulls back from 1.0291, suggesting that a short term cycle top is being formed. Consolidation in a range between 1.0200 and 1.0291 is expected later today. Key resistance is now located at 1.0291, a break above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.0507 has completed at 1.0132 already, then the following uptrend could bring price back towards 1.0507 previous high.


AUDUSD Analysis.
After being supported by 0.9170, AUDUSD bounced back to a trading range between 0.9170 and 0.9327. Sideways movement is expected to continue later today. As long as 0.9170 support holds, the price action from 0.9325 is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 0.8734, one more rise towards 0.9404 (Nov 16, 2009 high) is still possible. However, a breakdown below 0.9170 key support will indicate that a short term cycle top has been formed at 0.9327, and the uptrend from 0.8734 has completed, then deeper decline could be seen to 0.9000 or even 0.8850.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD stays below a falling trend line from 1.0745 to 1.0413 and remains in downtrend from 1.0745. One more fall to re-test 1.0206 (Oct 15 low) support is expected later today. Resistance is at the falling trend line, only rise above the trend line resistance could take price back towards 1.0413.


EURUSD Analysis.
Being supported by the bottom of the price channel on 4-hour chart, EURUSD bounces from 1.4335. The rise is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.4579. One more fall towards 1.4218 previous low is still possible in a couple of days and a break below 1.4335 will signal resumption of downtrend.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY broke below the lower border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart. Deeper decline is now in favor and target would be at 89.50 area. Initial resistance is at the falling trend line from 93.75 to 92.04, as long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend from 93.75 could be expected to continue. Key resistance is at 92.04, above this level could trigger another rally towards 0.9500 zone.


GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD runs in a rising price channel on 4-hour chart and remains in uptrend from 1.5896. Further rally is expected later today and next target would be at 1.6500 area. Initial support is at the bottom of the price channel and key support is now located at 1.6210, below this level will indicate that the rise from 1.5896 has completed.


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