Daily Forex Analysis – January 13, 2010

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD broke below the rising trend line on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a short term cycle top is being formed on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 0.9123 and 0.9325 is expected. As long as 0.9123 support holds, we’d expect uptrend from 0.8734 to continue and one more rise towards 0.9404 (Nov 16, 2009 high) is still possible. However, a break below 0.9123 will indicate that the rise from 0.8734 has completed, then deeper decline could be seen to 0.9000 or even 0.8850.


EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD might be forming a short term cycle top at 1.4555 level on 4-hour chart. Another fall to test key support at 4370 would more likely be seen later today, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top, then deeper decline towards 1.4218 could be seen. Resistance is at 1.4555, only rise above this level could signal further rally to 1.4650-1.4700 area.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY broke below 91.25 support, suggesting that the uptrend from 87.37 has completed. Deeper decline is still possible and target would be at the bottom of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart. As long as the channel support holds, one more rise towards 95.00 is still possible.


GBPUSD Analysis.
No changed in our view, GBPUSD is in range trading between 1.5829 and 1.6238. Moving sideways without trend in the range is expected to continue in a couple of days. The price action in the trading range is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.6875 (Nov 16, 2009 high), one more fall towards 1.5708 (Oct 13, 2009 low) is still possible after consolidation.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF might be forming a short term cycle bottom at 1.0132 level on 4-hour chart. Bounce towards the upper border of the falling price channel would more likely be seen in a couple of days, however, a break above 1.0210 is needed to confirm such case.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD is testing the resistance of the falling trend line from 1.0745 to 1.0576. A clear break above this channel resistance could take price further to 1.0450 zone. However, the bounce from 1.0251 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.0745, one more fall towards 1.0200 is still possible after consolidation.


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