Daily Forex Analysis – December 31, 2009

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD has formed a short term cycle top at 1.4457 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.4218 and 1.4457 is expected in a couple of days. As long as 1.4457 resistance holds, the price action from 1.4218 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.5144 and one more fall towards 1.4100 is still possible after consolidation. However, a break above 1.4457 will indicate that the fall from 1.5144 has completed at 1.4218 already, then further rally could be seen to 1.4500 or even higher.


AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD trades in a narrow range between 0.8900 and 0.8992. As long as 0.8900 support holds, another rally towards 90.50 is still possible and a break above 0.8992 will signal resumption of uptrend from 0.8734. However, a break below 0.8900 will indicate that a short term cycle top has been formed on 4-hour chart and the rise from 0.8734 has completed, then one more fall below 0.8734 previous low is expected to follow.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY broke above 92.32 (Oct 27 high) resistance and the uptrend from 87.37 extends further to as high as 92.75 level. Initial support is at 92.10 and key support is located at rising trend line from 87.37 to 88.97. As long as the trend line support holds, uptrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at 93.50 area.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF’s bounce from 1.0278 is limited by the upper border of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart. The fall from 1.0421 suggests that a short term cycle top is being formed and another fall towards 1.0278 previous low is expected later today.


GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD breaks above the resistance of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom has been formed and the downtrend from 1.6409 has completed at 1.5829 level. Range trading between 1.5829 and 1.6200 is expected in next several days. However, the bounce from 1.5829 is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.6875 (Nov 16 high), one more fall towards 1.5708 (Oct 13 low) is possible after after consolidation.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD bounces sharply from 1.0365, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom has been formed on 4-hour chart, and the fall from 1.0745 has completed. Now the rise from 1.0365 could possibly be resumption of uptrend. Further rally to 1.0600-1.0650 area is expected later today.


Have a happy new year!