Daily Forex Analysis – November 18, 2009

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD broke above the falling price channel on 4-hour chart. However, the rise can reach 1.0617 level only. Now the fall from 1.0617 is more likely resumption of downtrend from 1.0852, and another fall towards 1.0206 previous low is still in favor. Key support is at 1.0416, a break below this level will indicate that a short term cycle top has been formed at 1.0617 and confirm the resumption of downtrend. On the up side, above 1.0617 will suggest that the fall from 1.0852 has completed at 1.0416 already, then further rally could be seen to 1.0700 zone.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF’s rebound from 1.0035 extended further to as high as 1.0208. However, the price action from 1.0035 is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.0338, another fall towards 0.9900 is still expected after consolidation.


GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD remains in short term uptrend from 1.6515 and price action from 1.6875 is treated as consolidation of uptrend. Further rise is possible later today and next target would be at 1.6950-1.7000 area. Support level is at 1.6755, as long as this level holds, uptrend will continue.


AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD broke below the rising trend line from 0.8916 to 0.9210, suggesting lengthier consolidation of uptrend from 0.8916 is underway. Range trading between 0.9210 and 0.9404 would more likely be seen later today. As long as 0.9210 support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume, and one more rise towards 0.9500 is still possible after consolidation. However, below 0.9210 will indicate that the rise from 0.8916 has completed at 0.9404 level already, then deeper decline could be seen to 0.9100 or even 0.9000.


EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD dropped below 1.4821 support, suggesting lengthier consolidation of longer term uptrend from 1.3748 (June 16 low) is on the way. Range trading between 1.4750 and 1.5048 is expected in a couple of days. However, another rise towards 1.5200 is still possible after consolidation.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY stays below the falling trend line from 91.26 to 90.60 and remains in downtrend. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 88.50 level. On the other side, the pair might be forming a short term cycle bottom at 88.73 level on 4-hour chart. Key resistance is now located at 90.60, a break above this level will confirm the cycle bottom and indicate that the fall from 92.32 has completed.


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