Daily Forex Analysis – June 4, 2009

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD breaks above the resistance of the falling trend line 1.1814 to 1.1257 and the key resistance of 1.0971, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.0784 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.0784 and 1.1300 is expected in next several days. However, the price action from 1.0784 is more likely consolidation of the downtrend from 1.3063 (Mar 9 high). As long as 1.1300 resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and further fall towards 1.0500 is still possible after consolidation.

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USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF breaks above 1.0742 key resistance, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.0590 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.0590 and 1.0800 is expected to follow in a couple of days. Downtrend will resume after consolidation and a break down below 1.0590 will signal deeper decline to 1.0400 zone.

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USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY traded in a narrow range in the last two trading days. Moving without trend in a range between 93.85 and 97.23 is still in favor. As long as 97.23 key resistance holds, the range trading is treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 101.43 (Apr 6 high) and further fall below 93.53 (Mar 19 low) long term key support is expected after consolidation.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD pulls back from the upper border of the rising price channel, suggesting that a sort term cycle top is being formed at 1.4338 level on 4-hour chart. Sideways consolidation in a range between 1.3950 and 1.4338 is expected in a couple of days. However, the fall from 1.4338 is more likely consolidation of uptrend from 1.2884. Further rally towards 1.4600 is still possible after consolidation and a break above 1.4338 level will signal resumption of the uptrend.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD pulls back sharply from 0.8263 and drops below 0.8050 key support. A short term cycle top has been formed at 0.8263 level on 4-hour chart. Sideways consolidation in a range between 0.7900 and 0.8263 would more likely be seen in next several days. However, the fall from 0.8263 is treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 0.6952 (Apr 20 low), further rally to 0.8500 is still possible after consolidation.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD drops sharply from 1.6662 and breaks below 1.6323 key support, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed at 1.6662 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.6050 and 1.6662 would more likely be seen in next several days. As long as 1.6050 support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume and one more rise towards 1.7000 is possible after consolidation.

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