Daily Forex Analysis – May 12, 2009

GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD is in a trading range between 1.4943 and 1.5247. The price action in this range is more likely consolidation of the uptrend from 1.4397. As long as 1.4943 support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume and further rally is still possible to 1.5400-1.5500 area after consolidation. However, below 1.4943 key support will indicate that the rise from 1.4397 has completed at 1.5247 level already, and then pullback to 1.4600- 1.4750 area could be seen.


AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD pulls back from 0.7709, suggesting that a short term cycle top is being formed. Deeper decline to test 0.7507 support is expected later today, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top and pullback to 0.7400 zone could be seen to follow.


EURUSD Analysis.
After touching the upper border of the price channel on 4-hour chart, EURUSD pulls back from 1.3669 level. The pair might be forming a short term cycle top on 4-hour chart. Range treading between 1.3450 and 1.3669 is expected in next several days. Initial resistance is now at 1.3669, only break above this level will signal further rally to test 1.3738 (Mar 19 high) resistance.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF remains in short term downtrend from 1.1418 and the rebound from 1.1020 is treated as consolidation of the downtrend. Deeper decline is possible to 1.0900 after consolidation. Near term resistance is at 1.1120 followed by 1.1170.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD stays in the falling price channel on 4-hour chart and remains in downtrend from 1.2504. The rebound from 1.1474 is treated as correction of the downtrend. As long as the upper border of the price channel resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and deeper decline is still possible. However, a clear break above the channel resistance will signal further rally to test 1.1824 key resistance.


USDJPY Analysis.
As expected, USDJPY breaks below 97.95 support and reaches as low as 97.13 level. Deeper decline to 96.50 to reach the next short term cycle bottom on 4-hour chart is possible. Initial resistance is at 97.75 and key resistance is located at 98.50, above this level will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed and the fall from 99.64 has completed.


For long term forex analysis.

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