Daily Forex Analysis – March 26, 2009

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD formed a sideways consolidation in a range between 1.2191 and 1.2445 for several days. Near term resistance is at the upper border of the price channel, above the channel resistance will signal further rally to test 1.2445 key resistance, further rise above this level will signal lengthier consolidation of the medium term downtrend from 1.3063. As the next short term cycle top on 4-hour chart is nearing, resumption of the downtrend would more likely be seen before breaking above 1.2445 level.


EURUSD Analysis.
Being contained by the mentioned support of 1.3416, EURUSD rebounds from 1.3418 level. However, lengthier consolidation is still possible in a couple of days and further pullback is expected to test 1.3250 key support, below this level will indicate that the rise from 1.2456 (Mar 4 low) has completed at 1.3738 already, and then deeper decline could be seen to 1.2950 zone. Near term resistance is located at 1.3738, a break above this level will suggest that the medium term uptrend from 1.2456 has resumed and the next short term target would be at 1.4000-1.4100 area.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF stays in the trading range between 1.1159 and 1.1341. The price action from 1.1159 is treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.1963, deeper decline is still possible after consolidation and the next short term target would be at 1.1000 level.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY is in range trading between 93.53 and 99.67, moving sideways without trend in this range is expected in next several days. Pullback to 95.50 zone would more likely be seen later today. Only rise above 99.67 key resistance will indicate that the medium term uptrend from 87.12 has resumed and then further rise could be seen to 102.00 zone.


GBPUSD Analysis.
As expected, GBPUSD pulls back from 1.4779 level. Range trading between 1.4394 and 1.4779 is expected in a couple of days. However, the price action in this range is treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.3654 (Mar 11 low). As long as 1.4394 level holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume and one more rise to 1.5200-1.5300 is possible after consolidation.


AUDUSD Analysis.
No changed in our view, AUDUSD remains in short term uptrend. The pullback from 0.7092 is treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Further rise is expected to test 0.7267 (Jan 7 high) resistance after consolidation. Initial support is at 0.6900 followed by 0.6840, as long as 0.6840 support holds, we’d expected the uptrend to continue.


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