USDCHF broke below 1.1600 key support last week, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed at 1.1848 level on 4-hour chart. Deeper decline to test 1.1459 level is possible later today, below this level will indicate that the rise from 1.0366 (Dec 29, 2008 low) has completed and deeper decline could be seen to 1.1000 zone.
USDJPY broke below 96.84 support and reached 96.56 only last Friday, suggesting that a sort term cycle bottom is being formed. Range trending between 96.56 and 99.67 would more likely be seen in a couple of days. However, the price action from 98.70 is treated as consolidation of the medium uptrend from 87.12 (Jan 21 low), further rise to 102.00 zone is still possible after consolidation, and a break above 99.67 previous high will signal resumption of the uptrend.
Being contained by the long term resistance at 1.3015 (Oct 28, 2008 high), USDCAD pulled back from 1.2973 level. Consolidation in a range between 1.2500 and 1.2973 could be seen in a couple of days. As long as 1.2500 level holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume and further rise above 1.3015 would more likely be seen after consolidation. However, below 1.2500 will indicate that the pair is back to range trading between 1.1464 (Nov 5, 2008 low) and 1.3015.
EURUSD formed a short term cycle bottom at 1.2456 level on 4-hour chart. Further rebound to 1.2800 to reach the next cycle top is possible in a couple of days. Key support is now located at 1.2601, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top, and then the following downtrend will take price back to retest 1.2456 level. Medium term key resistance is located at 1.2991, above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.4719 (Dec 18, 2008 high) has completed.
GBPUSD might be forming a short term cycle top at 1.4305 on 4-hour chart. Key support is located at 1.3957, a break down below this level will confirm the cycle top, and then deeper decline could be seen to 1.3700 zone. Key resistance is located at 1.4383, only rise above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.4985 has completed at 1.3957 level, and the following uptrend will take price back to 1.4750-800 area.
AUDUSD is in sideways consolidation between 0.6284 and 0.6553. As long as 0.6553 resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and deeper decline would more likely be seen to 0.6100-50 area after consolidation. However, above 0.6553 resistance will indicate that the fall from 0.6849 has completed at 0.6284 level.