Daily Forex Analysis – February 12, 2009

GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD breaks below the support of the price channel on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed at 1.4985 level on 4-hour chart. Further fall is expected to test 1.2051 support, a break below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 2.0158 (July 15, 2008 high) has resumed, and deeper decline could be seen to 1.3000 zone.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD is in range trading between 1.2024 and 1.2765. A break above 1.2538 near term resistance will signal further rally to test 1.2765 previous high resistance. However, pullback is possible before breaking above 1.2538 level, and one more fall below 1.2024 to reach the next cycle bottom on daily chart is expected.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY formed a short term cycle top at 92.40 level on 4-hour chart. Sideways consolidation would more likely be seen in a range between 88.58 and 92.40. Initial support is at the rising trend line from 87.12 to 88.58, and the key support is located at 88.58, a break below this level will indicate that the rise from 87.12 has completed, and further fall below 87.12 could be seen to follow.


USDCHF Analysis.
No changed in our view, USDCHF is running in a price channel on 4-hour chart. As long as the channel support holds, we’d expect short term uptrend from 1.1313 to continue. Medium term key support is located at 1.1313, below this level will indicate that the rise from 1.0366 (Dec 29,2008 low) has completed.


EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD trades in a range between 1.2706 and 1.3093. Moving sideways without trend in this range is expected in a couple of days. The price action from 1.2764 (Jan 23 low) is more likely consolidation of the medium term downtrend from 1.4719 (Dec 18, 2008 high). Further fall is expected after the sideways consolidation, and a break below 1.2706 will signal deeper decline towards 1.2500 area.


AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD formed a short term cycle top at 0.6849 level on 4-hour chart. However, the fall from 0.6849 is treated as correction of the short term uptrend from 0.6248, as long as 0.6248 support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume, and further rally could be seen to 0.7100 after correction.


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