Daily Forex Analysis – February 4, 2009

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY stays in the trading range between 87.98 and 90.74. Moving sideways without trend in this range is expected in a couple of days. Near term resistance is located at 90.74, a break above this level will signal further rally to 92.50 zone. Initial support support is at 88.80 followed by 87.98, below 87.98 will indicate that the medium term downtrend from 94.61 (Jan 6 high) has resumed, and then deeper decline could be seen to 86.00 zone.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD might be forming a short term cycle top at 1.2521 on 4-hour chart. Key support is located at 1.2244, a break down below this level will confirm the cycle top, and then pullback could be seen to retest 1.2024 support. Near term resistance is at 1.2521, only rise above this level will signal further rally towards 1.2600 zone.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF breaks below the support of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, suggesting that the pair is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 1.1313 and 1.1714. medium term key support is at 1.1313, below this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.0366 (Dec 29 low) has completed, and then the following downtrend will take price back to 1.0800 zone. However rise above 1.1714 is still possible after the sideways consolidation, a break above 1.1714 will signify that the uptrend from 1.0366 has resumed and further rally to 1.2000 is expected to follow.


AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD rebounds sharply from 0.6248 and reaches as high as 0.6544 level. However the rise is treated as correction to the downtrend from 0.7267 (Jan 7 high). As long as 0.6729 resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume, and pullback to 0.6100 is still possible after correction.


EURUSD Analysis.
No changed in our view, EURUSD remains in medium downtrend from 1.4719 (Dec 18, 2008 high), and the rebound from 1.2706 is more likely consolidation of the downtrend. Deeper decline is still possible to 1.2500 zone after consolidation. Near term support is now located at 1.2706, a break below this level will confirm the resumption of the downtrend.


GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD is in range trading between 1.4051 and 1.4542. Further rise towards 1.4800 is still in favor after consolidation and a break above 1.4542 will signal the resumption of the short term uptrend from 1.3503.


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