Daily Forex Analysis – December 1, 2008

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD breaks below 1.2803 key support, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed at 1.3080 level on 4-hour chart. Deeper decline could be seen to retest 1.2389 previous low support. Initial resistance is at 1.2850, and key resistance is located at 1.3080, above 1.3080 will signal further rally to 1.3500 zone.


GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD consolidated in a narrow range between 1.5177 and 1.5534 for several days. Further rally is still in favor and target would be at 1.5800 zone. Initial support is located at 1.5177, a break below this level will signal deeper decline to 1.4850 level.


AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD is forming a short term cycle top at 0.6617 on 4-hour chart. Key support is located at 0.6322, a break down below this level will confirm the cycle top and signal deeper decline to retest 0.6008 (Oct 27 low) support.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD is in down trend. The rebound from 1.2125 is treated as consolidation to down trend. Initial resistance is at 1.2478 followed by 1.2600. As long as 1.2600 resistance holds, we’d expected downtrend to resume, and deeper decline is still possible to 1.1800 level.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF formed a short term cycle bottom at 1.1828. The rise from 1.1828 could possibly be resumption of up trend. Further rally could be seen to test 1.2296 previous high resistance. A break above this level will signal resumption of long term up trend, and the next target would be at 1.2500 zone. Initial support is at the up trend line on 4-hour chart, only fall below trend line support will indicate that lengthier consolidation of long term up trend is underway, and the following pullback would take price back to test 1.1828 support.


USDJPY Analysis.
No changed in our view, USDJPY consolidates in a range between 93.55 and 97.43. A break above 97.43 resistance will indicate that the down trend from 100.54 (Nov 4 high) has completed, and the following up trend will bring price to 100.00 zone. Only fall below 93.55 will signal deeper decline towards 90.92 (Oct 24 low) level.


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