Daily Forex Analysis – October 15, 2012

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD stays in a trading range between 1.2803 and 1.3071. Another rise to test 1.3071 resistance would likely be seen, a break above this level will signal resumption of the longer term uptrend from 1.2042, then next target would be at 1.3500 area. However, as long as 1.3071 resistance holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.3171, one more fall to 1.2700 area to complete to downward movement is still possible.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD failed to break above the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, and pulled back from 1.0293 last Friday, suggesting that a cycle top has been formed. Further decline to test 1.0149 support could be expected, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 1.0624 has resumed, then next target would be at 1.0000-1.0050 area. Key resistance remains at the trend line, only a clear break above the trend line could signal completion of the downtrend.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD has formed a cycle bottom at 1.5976 on 4-hour chart. Further rise towards the downward trend line would likely be seen, a clear break above the trend line could signal completion of the downward movement from 1.6309. However, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the rise from 1.5976 is treated as consolidation of the downtrend, and one more fall towards 1.5900 is still possible.

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USDCAD Analysis.
No changed in our view, USDCAD remains in downtrend from 0.9884, the rise from 0.9734 is treated as correction of the downtrend. Another fall towards 0.9632 previous low could be expected after correction, and a breakdown below 0.9734 could signal resumption of the downtrend.

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USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF stays in a trading range between 0.9274 and 0.9437. Another fall to test 0.9274 support would likely be seen, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the longer term downtrend from 0.9971, then next target would be at 0.9000. On the upside, as long as 0.9274 support holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 0.9239, and one more rise to 0.9500-0.9600 area is still possible.

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USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY has formed a cycle bottom at 77.94 on 4-hour chart. Further rise to test 78.86 resistance would likely be seen, a break above this level could signal resumption of the uptrend from 77.43, then next target would be at 80.00 area. Support is at 77.94, only break below this level could bring price back to 77.00 area.

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