Daily Forex Analysis – May 2, 2012

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY may be forming a cycle bottom at 79.63 on 4-hour chart. Another rise to test the resistance of the downward price channel would likely be seen, a clear break above the upper line of the channel will signal completion of the downtrend from 84.17 (Mar 15 high), then the following upward movement could bring price back to 83.00 zone. However, as long as the channel resistance holds, the rise from 79.63 is treated as consolidation of the downtrend, and one more fall to 79.00 is still possible.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD breaks below the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle top has been formed at 1.0474. Now the fall from 1.0474 would possibly be resumption of the downtrend from 1.0855 (Feb 29 high). Further decline to re-test 1.0225 previous low support could be seen, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the downtrend.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD has formed a cycle top at 1.6301 on 4-hour chart. However, the fall from 1.6301 is likely consolidation of the uptrend from 1.5818, another rise towards 1.6500 is still possible after consolidation. Support is at 1.6180, only break below this level could indicate that the uptrend is complete.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD stays in a upward price channel on 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 1.2995. Further rise is still possible after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 1.3350 area. Support is at the lower border of the channel, only a clear break below the channel support could signal completion of the uptrend.

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USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD has formed a cycle bottom at 0.9799 on 4-hour chart. Further rally would likely be seen in a couple of days, and the target would be at 0.9950 area. Support is at 0.9799, only break below this level could signal resumption of the downtrend from 1.0051.

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USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF is facing the resistance of the downward trend line on 4-hour chart. A clear break above the trend line resistance will indicate that a cycle bottom has been formed at 0.9043, then further rise towards 0.9250 could be seen. However, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the rise from 0.9043 is treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 0.9250, and another fall to 0.9000 is still possible.

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