Daily Forex Analysis – December 15, 2009

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF stays above the rising trend line on 4-hour chart and remains in uptrend from 0.9959. As long as the trend line support holds, one more rise to 1.0400-1.0450 is expected after a minor consolidation. On the other side, a clear break below the trend line support could suggest that a short term cycle top is being formed, and then pullback could be seen to 1.0210 or even 1.0160.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD continues its sideways movement between 1.6167 and 1.6371. As long as 1.6371 resistance holds, the price action from 1.6167 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.6721, and another fall towards 1.6000 is expected after consolidation. However, above 1.6371 will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.6167 level on 4-hour chart, and the fall from 1.6721 has completed, then further rally could be seen to 1.6500 area.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD trades in a range between 0.9014 and 0.9193. One more rise towards the falling trend line from 0.9404 to 0.9321 is still possible later today. Support level is at 0.9014, below this level could trigger another fall to test 0.8916 critical support.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD remains in downtrend and the price action from 1.4586 is treated as minor consolidation of downtrend. As long as 1.4781 resistance holds, we’d expected another fall towards 1.4500 area. However, above 1.4781 will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed on 4-hour chart.

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USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY remains in uptrend from 87.37 and the fall from 89.80 is treated as correction of uptrend. One more rise towards 90.76 is still possible after correction and a break above 89.80 could signal resumption of uptrend.

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USDCAD Analysis.
No changed in our view, USDCAD traded in range between 1.0405 and 1.0748 for several weeks. Lengthier consolidation in range is still possible in a couple of day. Another fall towards 1.0206 (Oct 15 low) previous low would more likely be seen after consolidation and a breakdown below 1.0405 will confirm resumption of downtrend.

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