Daily Forex Analysis – December 14, 2009

GBPUSD Analysis.
After breaking below 1.6271 support, GBPUSD formed a trading range between 1.6167 and 1.6371. The price action in the trading range is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.6721. As long as 1.6371 resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and one more fall towards 1.6000 area is still possible. However, above 1.6371 will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.6167 level on 4-hour chart, and the fall from 1.6721 has completed, then further rally could be seen to 1.6500 area.

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USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF broke above 1.0338 key resistance, suggesting that the longer term downtrend from 1.1021 (Jun 24 high) has completed at 0.9917 level already. As long as the rising trend line support holds, further rally is expected to 1.0400-1.0450 after a minor consolidation. However, a clear break below the trend line support will indicate that a another short term cycle top is being formed and the rise from 0.9959 has completed, then pullback could be seen towards 1.0218 or even 1.0136.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD’s bounce from 0.9014 reached 0.9193 only. The subsequent pullback could possibly be resumption of downtrend. Another fall to retest 0.9014 support would more likely be seen later today, a break below this level could signal deeper decline towards 0.8916 critical support. Resistance is now located at 0.9193, only rise above this level could bring price towards the falling trend line from 0.9404 to 0.9321.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD broke below 1.4626 key support last week, suggesting that the longer term uptrend from 1.3748 (June 16 low) has completed at 1.5144 already. Further fall towards 1.4500 area is still possible after a minor consolidation. Resistance is now at 1.4781, as long as this level holds, downtrend will continue.

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USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY’s bounce from 87.37 extended to as high as 89.80 level. Further rise towards 90.76 is still possible after a minor consolidation. Support levels are at 88.70 and 88.35, only break below these levels could signal another fall towards 87.37.

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USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD traded in range between 1.0405 and 1.0748 for several weeks. Lengthier consolidation in range is still possible in a couple of day. Another fall towards 1.0206 (Oct 15 low) previous low would more likely be seen after consolidation and a breakdown below 1.0405 will confirm resumption of downtrend.

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