Short Term Analysis – November 16, 2006

USDJPY

20061116_usdjpy_1.gifUSDJPY moves without trend in a range between 117.12 and 118.58 in the past two weeks. The pair is testing the down trend line resistance, if this resistance gives way, rise towards 119.00 level can be expected. On the other side, if the trend line resistance holds, fall below 117.12 to reach the next cycle bottom on 4 hours chart can be expected.

AUDUSD

20061116_audusd_1.gifAUDUSD is in down trend, the rebound from 0.7613 is treated as in correction to the down trend, and further fall below 0.7613 to reach the next cycle bottom on 4 hours chart is still possible after this correction. Near term resistances are at 0.7673 and the top of the falling price channel.

USDCAD

20061116_usdcad_1.gifAs expected, USDCAD broke above 1.1413 previous high resistance, and further move higher towards 1.1457 (the day high of July 24) to reach the next cycle top is still possible later today. Key support is now at 1.1342, a break below this level may confirm the cycle top at 1.1426 high.

GBPUSD

20061116_gbpusd_1.gifGBPUSD is in down trend and further fall to1.8800 level is still possible later today. Near term resistance is at the down trend line, and as long as the trend line resistance holds, down trend will continue.

EURUSD

20061116_eurusd_1.gifThe fall from 1.2889 is limited by the rising price channel support which we mentioned yesterday, EURUSD may be bottoming at 1.2772 on 4 hours chart, and further rise towards the key resistance at 1.2870 is possible later today, a break above this level may confirm the cycle bottom at 1.2772 low. On the other side, if the price channel support gives way, further fall towards 1.2745 level can be expected.

USDCHF

20061116_usdchf_1.gifUSDCHF failed to test the previous high resistance at 1.2523 and pulled back to 1.2449, it may be topping on 4 hours chart, further fall towards 1.2384 can be expected later today, and a break below this level may confirm the cycle top at 1.2521 high. Near term resistance is now at 1.2521, only break above this level may pull price towards 1.2578 previous high.