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Archive for May, 2010
EURUSD breaks above 1.0244 resistance, suggesting that a cycle bottom has been formed at 1.2144 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.2144 and 1.2710 would more likely be seen in next several days. As long as 1.2710 resistance holds, the price action from 1.2144 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.3691 (Apr 12 high), and another fall to 1.2000 is still possible after consolidation, however, above 1.2710 will indicate that the fall 1.3691 has completed at 1.2144 already, then the following uptrend could take price back to 1.3000 area.
USDCAD stays above a rising line from 1.0110 to 1.0246 and remains in uptrend. Further rally is still possible later today and target would be at 1.0575 area. Support is at the rising trend line now at 1.0310, as long as this level holds, uptrend could be expected to continue. However, a clear break below the trend line support will indicate that a cycle top has been formed at 1.0536 already, then another fall towards 0.9930 previous low could be seen.
By Elliott Wave International
You know what a mystery the Dow’s 1,000-point drop on May 6 has been.
Wall Street is looking for a smoking gun — a trader’s mistake, a computer glitch — but nothing definite has been found yet.
If you’re familiar with Elliott wave analysis, last week’s shocking decline gets less mysterious. The chart you see below is from Robert Prechter’s latest, May Elliott Wave Theorist. Notice the price area where the drop occurred.
EURUSD’s bearish movement extends further to as low as 1.2144 level. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 1.2000 area. Resistance is at the falling trend line from 1.3093 to 1.2444, now at 1.2390, as long as this level holds, downtrend will continue. Key resistance is at 1.2444, above this level will suggest that a cycle bottom is being formed, then sideways consolidation of downtrend could be seen.
USDCHF remains in uptrend from 1.0923 and the pullback from 1.1445 is treated as consolidation of uptrend. Range trading between 1.1250 and 1.1445 is expected in a couple of days. Support is at 1.1250, as long as this level holds, another rise to 1.1500-1.1550 area is still possible after consolidation and a break above 1.1445 could signal resumption of uptrend, only fall below 1.1250 level could indicate that a cycle top has been formed at 1.1445 on 4-hour chart, then deeper decline could be seen to 1.1200 area.
AUDUSD drops sharply to as low as 0.8731 and is testing 0.8715 key support, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 0.9381 has resumed, then deeper decline could be seen to 0.8600 area. Initial resistance is now at 0.8838, only rise above this level could trigger another rise to 92.00 area.
GBPUSD has formed a cycle top at 1.5053 level on 4-hour chart. Now the fall from 1.5053 could possibly be resumption of downtrend from 1.5522. Deeper decline to re-test 1.4475 previous low support is possible later today, a break below this level could confirm that the downtrend has resumed, then next target would be at 1.4300 area. Resistance is at the falling trend line, as long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend will continue.
By Robert Folsom, Elliott Wave International
Please join me to consider a time in the stock market that lasted just under three years: 32 months, to be precise.
During this period a series of powerful rallies stand out clearly on a price chart. The shortest of these rallies was four weeks, the longest more than five months.
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