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Daily Forex Analysis – December 18, 2009

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF’s uptrend from 0.9959 extends to as high as 1.0507. As long as the channel support holds, uptrend could be expected to continue and further rally is still possible to 1.0550 area. However, next short term cycle top is nearing and 1.0507 could possibly be another cycle top on 4-hour chart. Key support is at 1.0345, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top and indicate that the rise from 0.9959 has completed, then range trading between 1.0250 and 1.0507 could be seen to follow.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD dropped sharply from 1.6409, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed on 4-hour chart. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 1.5900-1.6000 area. Resistance is at 1.5250, as long as this level holds, downtrend from 1.6409 will continue.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD broke below 0.8916 (Nov 3 low) key support, suggesting that the longer term uptrend from 0.7703 (Jul 13 low) has completed at 0.9404 level already. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 0.8700 area. Resistance levels are at 0.8925 and 0.9025.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD dropped sharply to as low as 1.4304. As long as the resistance of the falling trend line on 4-hour chart holds, downtrend could be expected to continue. However, next short term cycle bottom is nearing, a clear break above the trend line resistance could indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed, then consolidation in range between 1.4304 and 1.4500 is expected to follow.

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USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY remains in uptrend from 87.37 and the fall from 90.36 is more likely consolidation of uptrend. Support is now located a the lower border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart. As long as the channel support holds, another rally towards 90.76 is still possible.

20091218_usdjpy_1

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD has reached the previous high resistance at 1.0748, a break above this level will trigger a sharp move to 1.1000 or even 1.1200. However, as long as 1.0748 resistance holds, another fall below 1.0405 is still possible. Support is now at the bottom of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, a clear break below the channel support could signal resumption of downtrend.

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