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Daily Forex Analysis – September 29, 2009

GBPUSD Analysis.
No changed in our view, GBPUSD remains in downward trend from 1.6741 and the rebound from 1.5770 is treated as consolidation of downtrend. Range trading between 1.5770 and 1.6150 is expected in a couple of days. As long as 1.6150 resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and further fall to 1.5600 zone is still possible after consolidation. Only rise above 1.6150 will suggest that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.5770 level on 4-hour chart, and the downtrend from 1.6741 has completed.

20090930_gbpusd_1

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY formed a short term cycle bottom at 88.24 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 88.24 and 90.60 is expected in a couple of days. However, the price action from 88.24 would possible be consolidation of downtrend. As long as 90.60 resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and deeper decline to test 87.12 (Jan 21 low) long term critical support is still possible after consolidation. However, a break above 90.60 resistance will indicate that downtrend from 92.53 has completed, then further rise could be seen to 91.00 or even higher.

20090930_usdjpy_1

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD remains in downward trend from 1.4843 and the fall extends further to as low as 1.4527 level. Deeper decline is still in favor later today and target would be at 1.4500 zone. Near term resistance is at 1.4645, as long as this level holds, downtrend will continue. Key resistance is located at 1.4724, above this level will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed, then rebound towards 1.4843 could be seen to follow.

20090930_eurusd_1

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD has formed a short term cycle top at 1.0991 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.0750 and 1.0991 is expected in a couple of days. However, the fall from 1.0991 is more likely consolidation of uptrend from 1.0590, one more rise towards 1.1100 is still possible after consolidation, and a break above 1.0991 will signal resumption of uptrend.

20090930_usdcad_1

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD stays in a trading range between 0.8543 and 0.8788. Sideways movement is still possible later today. As we mentioned before, the price action in the trading range is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 0.8155, further rise towards 0.8900 is still expected after consolidation, and a breakout of 0.8788 level will signal resumption of uptrend.

20090930_audusd_1

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF stays in a rising price channel on 4-hour chart. Further rise to test 1.0422 resistance is still possible later today. However, the price action from 1.0186 is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.0714, a breakdown below 1.0242 key support will suggest that the downtrend has resumed, then deeper decline could be seen to 1.0100 zone.

20090930_usdchf_1

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