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Daily Forex Analysis – December 30, 2008

GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD breaks below 1.4466 (Dec 4 low) support and the fall from 1.5722 extends further to as low as 1.4378 level, suggesting that the long term down trend from 2.0158 (July 15 high) has resumed. Deeper decline is expected to 1.4000 zone in next several days. Near term resistance is located at 1.4766, as long as this level holds, down trend will continue.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD pulls back sharply from 1.4360 and reaches as low as 1.3914 level. One more rise is still possible to retest 1.4719 resistance in a couple of days. However, the price action from1.4719 is treated as consolidation to long term up trend, pullback would more likely be seen before breaking above this level.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
No changed in our view, AUDUSD is in down trend. The price action from 0.6763 is more likely  consolidation to down trend. Rise towards 0.7050 to reach the next short term cycle top is still possible in a couple of days. As long as 0.7140 resistance holds, we’d expect down trend to resume, and deeper decline could be seen to 0.6500 zone after consolidation, and a break down below 0.6755 will confirm the resumption of down trend.

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USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF breaks below 1.0410 support and reaches 1.0366. Deeper decline could be seen to 1.0300 level in a couple of days. Initial resistance is located at 1.0700, as long as this resistance holds, we’d expect down trend to continue.

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USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD stays in the narrow trading range between 1.1984 and 1.2251. Rise towards 1.2700 would more likely be seen in next several days, and a break above 1.2251 level will confirm such case. Initial support is located at 1.1984, below this level will signal deeper decline to retest 1.1464 (Nov 5 low) support.

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USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY breaks below the key support at 89.89, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed at 90.98 level on 4-hour chart. Pullback towards 88.00 zone is now in favor. Initial resistance is at 90.98, above this level will signal further rally towards 93.00-50 area.

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