USDJPY formed a cycle top at 88.11 level on 4-hour chart. Now the fall from 88.11 is treated as resumption of downtrend from 92.88 (Jun 4 high). Further fall towards 84.82 (2009 low) is expected in next several days. Key resistance is at 88.11, only rise above this level could indicate that lengthier consolidation of downtrend is underway.
Archive for July, 2010
USDJPY’s bounce from 86.26 extended to as high as 88.11 level. Further rise towards the upper boundary of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart is still possible, and next cycle top is nearing. Key support is at 86.80, a break below this level will indicate that a cycle top has been formed at 88.11, then the following downward movement could bring price towards 84.82 (2009 low).
USDCHF’s bounce from 1.0394 extended to as high as 1.0639 level. Further rally is still possible later today and target is to test 1.0675 key resistance, a break of this level will indicate that the downtrend started from 1.1730 (Jun 1 high) had completed at 1.0394 already, then longer term target would be at 1.0900 area. However, as long as 1.0675 resistance holds, the price action in the trading range between 1.0394 and 1.0675 is treated as consolidation of downtrend, and another fall to 1.0300 is still possible.
By Elliott Wave International
If "fundamentals" drive trend changes in financial markets, then shouldn’t the same factors have consistent effects on prices?
For example: Positive economic data should ignite a rally, while negative news should initiate decline. In the real world, though, this is hardly the case.
On a regular basis, markets go up on bad news, down on good news, and both directions on the same news — almost as if to say, "Talk to the hand cuz the chart ain’t listening."
Unable to deny this fly in the fundamental ointment, the mainstream experts often attempt to reconcile the inconsistencies with phrases like "shrugged off," "defied" or "in spite of."
That begs the next question: How do you know when a market is going to cooperate with fundamental logic and when it won’t? ANSWER: You don’t.
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USDCHF trades in a range between 1.0394 and 1.0675. Another rise towards 1.0675 resistance is expected later today. As long as this level holds, the price action in the range is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.1730 (Jun 1 high), and another fall to 1.0300 is still possible, and a breakdown below 1.0394 could signal resumption of downtrend, only rise above 1.0675 could indicate that the fall from 1.1730 has completed at 1.0394 already.
USDJPY’s bounce from 86.26 extends to as high as 87.71. Further rally to 88.00-88.50 area to reach the next cycle top on 4-hour chart is still possible. Resistance is at the upper boundary of the falling price channel, now at 88.60, as long as the channel resistance holds, the price action from 86.96 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 94.98 (May 5 high), and another fall towards 84.82 (2009 low) is still possible, only a clear break above the channel resistance could indicate that the fall from 94.98 is complete.
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After touching the lower boundary of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, EURUSD bounce from 1.2732. Now the rise from 1.2732 could possibly be resumption of uptrend from 1.2150. Another rise to 1.3200 area would more likely be seen in a couple of days. Key support is at 1.2732, only fall below this level could trigger another fall to 1.2600 zone.
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USDCAD is forming a triangle pattern on daily chart. Resistance is at the upper boundary of the pattern, now at 1.0605, a clear break above this level will indicate that the uptrend form 0.9930 has resumed, then another rise towards 1.0852 (May 25 high) could be seen. Support is located at the lower boundary of the pattern, now at 1.0321, a clear below this level could bring price towards 1.0000 area.
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