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The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free Club EWI resource, "The Guide to Understanding Deflation. Robert Prechter’s Most Important Writings on Deflation."
For Elliott Wave International’s chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, the single most important thing for a trader to have is STYLE– and no, we’re not talking business casual versus sporty chic. Trading "style," as in any of the following: top/bottom picker, strictly technical, cyclical, or pattern watcher.
Government debt is no longer just a problem for emerging countries. Portugal, Spain, France and Greece (as we have seen in recent weeks) are living in fear of credit default. Consequently, the value of their credit default swaps is skyrocketing.
The following is an excerpt from the February issue of Global Market Perspective. For a limited time, you can visit Elliott Wave International to download the rest of the 100+ page issue free.
GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD breaks below 1.5350 support and the fall from 1.5815 extends to as low as 1.5190 level. Deeper decline is still possible after a minor consolidation and next target would be at 1.5000 area. Resistance is now located at the falling trend line from 1.5815 to 1.5575, as long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend from 1.5815 could be expected to continue.
USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD might be forming a short term cycle top at 1.0593 level on 4-hour chart. Pullback to 1.0450 is expected later today. Resistance is now at 1.0593, above this level will suggesting that the fall from 1.0779 has completed at 1.0369 already, then further rally is expected to test 1.0779 previous high resistance. However, as long as 1.0593 resistance holds, one more fall towards 1.0300 would more likely be seen.
Elliott wavers sometimes hear the criticism that patterns in market charts can be "open to interpretation." For example, what looks like a finished 1-2-3 correction to one analyst, another analyst may interpret as 1-2-3 of a developing impulse, with waves 4 and 5 on the way.
EURUSD Analysis.
Being contained by the upper border of the falling price channel, EURUSD pulls back from 1.3691, suggesting that a short term cycle top is being formed on 4-hour chart. Another fall towards 1.3400 is expected, and a breakdown below 1.3443 could signal resumption of downtrend. Initial resistance is now at 1.3691, key resistance remains at 1.3838, only rise above this level will indicate that the downtrend from 1.4579 has completed at 1.3443 already, then further rally could be seen to 1.4000 or even 1.4500.
Investor expectations are decidely bullish right now, and many people expect an economic turnaround this year. What do the underlying economic conditions suggest? The Chinese mall "The Place" demonstrates the contrast between investor hope and economic reality.
The following is an excerpt from the February issue of Global Market Perspective. For a limited time, you can visit Elliott Wave International to download the rest of the 100+ page issue free.
EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD had formed a short term cycle bottom at 1.3443 level on 4-hour chart. Another bounce to test 1.3838 key resistance is expected later today. As long as this level holds, the price action from 1.3585 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.4579, and one more fall towards 1.3400 area is still possible. However, a break above 1.3838 resistance will indicate that the downward movement from 1.4579 has completed at 1.3443 already, then further rally could be seen to 1.4000 or even 1.4500.
USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF dropped sharply from 1.0898 last week, suggesting that a short term cycle top had been formed on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.0608 and 1.0898 is expected in a couple of days. However, the price action from 1.0794 is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 1.0132, one more rise towards 1.1000 is still possible. Key support is at 1.0608, below this level will indicate that the upward movement from 1.0132 has completed at 1.0898 already, then the following pullback could take price back to 1.0500 zone.
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