USDCAD broke below the rising price channel on 4-hour chart and formed a short term cycle top at 1.0691 level. Now the price action from 1.0691 is treated as consolidation of uptrend. As long as 1.0691 resistance holds, sideways movement is expected to continue, however, a clear break above 1.0691 level will suggest that a cycle bottom has been formed at 1.0556 level and the uptrend from 1.0224 has resumed, then next target would be at 1.0800 area.
Archive for January, 2010
USDCAD breaks below the lower border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a short term cycle top is being formed at 1.0691. Range trading between 1.0550 and 1.0691 would more likely be seen in a couple of days. However, the price action from 1.0691 is treated as minor consolidation of uptrend from 1.0224. One more rise to 1.0900 is still possible after consolidation and a break above 1.0691 could signal resumption of uptrend.
By Elliott Wave International
Like a spy who gets a burn notice, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has suddenly lost his support.
Bernanke has gone from being Time magazine’s Man of the Year in 2009 to … what? A Fed chairman embroiled in a controversial reconfirmation process before U.S. Congress. Why the sudden turnaround in his fortunes?
Robert Prechter, president of the research firm Elliott Wave International, has written about the history of the Fed and its chairmen several times over the years, and his research shows that their popularity rises and falls with social mood, which is measured by the stock market. Here is a compilation of excerpts from Prechter’s monthly market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, from 2005-2009 about the trouble he sees brewing at the Fed.
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Being contained by the falling trend line on 4-hour chart, EURUSD drops from 1.4194 level. However, sideways movement could still be seen later today and one more bounce towards1.4250 resistance is still possible. Initial support is at 1.4029, a breakdown below this level could indicate that the downtrend from 1.4579 has resumed, then deeper decline could be seen to 1.3800 area.
AUDUSD break above the falling price channel on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom is being formed at 0.8982 and the fall from 0.9327 has completed. Bounce to 0.9160 area to reach next cycle top is expected in a couple of days. Support is at 0.8982, only fall below this level could indicate that the fall from 0.9327 has resumed, then another decline could be seen to 0.8900 zone.
USDCHF failed to break above 1.0507 previous high resistance and pulled back from 1.0495. A short term cycle top had been formed on 4-hour chart. Sideways movement between 1.0350 and 1.0507 would more likely be seen in a couple of days. Support is located at the rising trend line now at 1.0320. As long as the trend line support holds, the fall from 1.0495 is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 1.0132. One more rise towards 1.0600 is possible after consolidation and a break above 1.0495 could signal resumption of uptrend.
Being contained by 1.0507 previous high resistance, USDCHF pulled back from 1.0495, suggesting that a short term cycle top is being formed on 4-hour chart. Sideways movement above the rising trend line is expected in a couple of days. The fall from 1.0495 is more likely consolidation of uptrend from 1.0132, as long as the trend line support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume and one more rise towards 1.0600 is possible after consolidation.
GBPUSD formed a short term cycle top at 1.6456 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.6210 and 1.6456 is expected later today. As long as 1.6210 key support holds, the price action from 1.6456 could be treated as consolidation of uptrend from 1.5829 and one more rise towards 1.6550 is still possible. However, a breakdown below 1.6210 level will indicate that the rise from 1.5829 has completed at 1.6456 level already, then the following downtrend could bring price back to re-test 1.5829 previous low support.
USDCAD breaks above the falling trend line from 1.0745 to 1.0413, suggesting lengthier consolidation of downtrend is underway. Bounce to test 1.0413 resistance is now in favor. As long as this level holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and one more fall towards 1.0000 is still possible. However, a break above 1.0413 key resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.0745 has completed at 1.0224 level already, then the following uptrend could take price back to 1.0600 area.
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