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Archive for December, 2009

Daily Forex Analysis – December 31, 2009

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD has formed a short term cycle top at 1.4457 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.4218 and 1.4457 is expected in a couple of days. As long as 1.4457 resistance holds, the price action from 1.4218 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.5144 and one more fall towards 1.4100 is still possible after consolidation. However, a break above 1.4457 will indicate that the fall from 1.5144 has completed at 1.4218 already, then further rally could be seen to 1.4500 or even higher.

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Daily Forex Analysis – December 30, 2009

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD’s bounce from 0.8734 extended further to as high as 0.8992 level. Support is now located at the rising trend line on 4-hour chart. As long as the trend line support holds, the bounce is expected to continue and next target would be at 90.50 area. However, a clear break below the trend line will indicate that a short term cycle top has been formed and the rise from 0.8734 has completed, then another fall towards 0.8734 previous low is expected to follow.

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Daily Forex Analysis – December 29, 2009

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY might be forming a short term cycle top at 91.86 level on 4-hour chart. Pullback towards the lower border of the rising price channel would more likely be seen later today. Resistance is located at 91.86, only rise above this level could indicate that the uptrend from 87.37 has resumed, then further rally could be seen to re-test 92.32 (Oct 27 high) resistance.

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Daily Forex Analysis – December 28, 2009

Monday, December 28th, 2009

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD broke above the falling trend line on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.4218 level. Range trading between 1.4218 and 1.4500 is expected in a couple of days. Critical resistance is located at 1.4500, as long as this level holds, the rise from 1.4218 could be treated as minor consolidation of downtrend from 1.5144, and another fall towards 1.4000-1.4100 is still possible after consolidation. However, a break above 1.4500 will indicate lengthier consolidation of downtrend is underway and further rally could be seen to 1.4700-1.4750 area.

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Daily Forex Analysis – December 23, 2009

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD stays below a falling trend line on 4-hour chart and remains in downtrend from 1.5140, and the fall extends further to as low as 1.4218 level. Deeper decline is still possible and next target would be at 1.4150 area. Resistance is at the falling trend line on 4-hour chart now at 1.4325, as long as this level holds, we’d expect downtrend to continue. However, above 1.4325 could indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed and minor consolidation in a range between 1.4200 and 1.4415 could be seen to follow.

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Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

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Daily Forex Analysis – December 22, 2009

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF has found support at the lower border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart. Sideways movement between 1.0387 and 1.0507 is expected later today. As long as 1.0387 support holds, we’d expect uptrend to continue and another rise towards 1.0550 area is still possible. However, below 1.0387 will indicate that a short term cycle top has been formed at 1.0507, and the uptrend from 0.9959 has completed, then deeper decline could be seen to 1.0300 zone.

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Daily Forex Analysis – December 21, 2009

Monday, December 21st, 2009

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD stays below a falling trend line on 4-hour chart and remains in downtrend from 1.5140. As long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at 1.4150-1.4200 area. Key resistance is now located at 1.4450, only rise above this level could indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.4261, then correction of downtrend could be seen to follow.

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Individual Investors Have Jumped Into Another Fire

Saturday, December 19th, 2009

By Robert Prechter, CMT

The following article is an excerpt from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist.

First they bought into the “stocks for the long run” case and got killed. Then they jumped on the commodity bandwagon and got killed. Many investors are buying back into these very same markets, but others are running to what they perceive as safe “yields” in the municipal bond market. So far this year, individual investors have “poured a record $55 billion” (Bloomberg, 11/12) into muni bond funds, with the pace running $2b. per week in August and September; many other investors are buying munis outright. These must be the people who tell us that they can’t live without “yield” and also cannot imagine their city, county or state government going bust. But as Conquer the Crash warned and as The Elliott Wave Theorist has reiterated, the muni bond market is heading for disaster.

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Daily Forex Analysis – December 18, 2009

Friday, December 18th, 2009

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF’s uptrend from 0.9959 extends to as high as 1.0507. As long as the channel support holds, uptrend could be expected to continue and further rally is still possible to 1.0550 area. However, next short term cycle top is nearing and 1.0507 could possibly be another cycle top on 4-hour chart. Key support is at 1.0345, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top and indicate that the rise from 0.9959 has completed, then range trading between 1.0250 and 1.0507 could be seen to follow.

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