No changed in our view, GBPUSD remains in downward trend from 1.6741 and the rebound from 1.5770 is treated as consolidation of downtrend. Range trading between 1.5770 and 1.6150 is expected in a couple of days. As long as 1.6150 resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and further fall to 1.5600 zone is still possible after consolidation. Only rise above 1.6150 will suggest that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.5770 level on 4-hour chart, and the downtrend from 1.6741 has completed.
Archive for September, 2009
USDJPY rebounded sharply from 88.24, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom has been formed on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 88.24 and 90.60 is expected in a couple of days. As long as 90.60 resistance holds, the price action from 88.24 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 92.53 and further fall to test 87.12 (Jan 21 low) long term critical support is still possible after consolidation, however, a break above 90.60 resistance will indicate that downtrend from 92.53 has completed, then further rise could be seen to 91.00 or even higher.
EURUSD has formed a short term cycle top at 1.4843 level on 4-hour chart. Further decline to 1.4500 zone would more likely be seen later today. Near term resistance is at 1.4724, as long as this level holds, we’d expect downtrend from 1.4843 to continue, however, a break above this level will suggest sideways consolidation between 1.4611 and 1.4843 is underway.
A Lesson in Drawing and Using Trendlines
By Jeffrey Kennedy
Jeffrey Kennedy shares how when he began his career as an analyst, he was lucky enough to have some time with a few old pros. One in particular told him that a kid with a ruler could make a million dollars in the markets. He was talking about trendlines. Read More.
EURUSD broke below the rising trend line on 4-hour chart and is testing 1.4611 support, a break below this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.4177 has completed at 1.4843 level already, then the following downtrend will will take price back to 1.4450 or even lower. Near term resistance is now located at 1.4843, only rise above this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.4177 has resumed, then the next target would be at 1.5000 zone.
Today more and more investors are warming to the fact that psychology moves markets and therefore fundamental analysis, which fails to properly measure mass investor psychology, must be flawed.
Who can blame them? After all, fundamental analysis — based on past company earnings, rating agency projections and the like — proved to be of little value during the bust.
Being contained by 90.12 precious low support, USDJPY rebounded from 90.48 level. Further rise to test 92.53 resistance would more likely be seen later today, a break above this level will confirm that the fall from 97.78 has completed at 90.12 level already, then the following uptrend will take price to 94.00 zone. Near term support is at 90.48 and key support is located at 90.12, only fall below 90.12 will indicate that the downtrend from 97.78 has resumed, then deeper decline is expected to 89.00 level.
EURUSD breaks above 1.4765 previous high and reaches as high as 1.4841 level. As long as the price stays above the rising trend line on 4-hour chart, we’d expect uptrend to continue and further rally is possible to 1.5000 zone in a couple of days. However, a clear break below the trend line support will suggesting that the rise from 1.4177 has completed, then pullback to test 1.4611 support could be seen to follow.
As expected, USDCAD reached 1.0850 level. Now the pullback from 1.0852 could possibly be resumption of downtrend. Deeper decline is in favor and target is to re-test 1.0590 previous low support, a break below this level will signal further fall towards 1.0500 zone. However, above 1.0925 key resistance will indicate that the downtrend from 1.1124 has completed, then the following uptrend will take price to 1.1200 zone.
USDJPY is testing 91.62 key resistance, a break above this level will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 91.12 level on 4-hour chart and indicate that the downtrend from 97.89 has completed, then further rally could be seen to 92.50-93.00 area. As long as 91.62 resistance holds, the price action from 90.20 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 97.78 and another fall towards 89.00 is still possible after consolidation.
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