AUDUSD break above 0.7617 key resistance, suggesting that a cycle bottom has been formed at 0.7450 level on 4-hour chart and the fall from 0.7709 has completed. Further rally to test 0.7709 previous high resistance is expected later today. A break of this level will indicate that the uptrend from 0.6952 (Apr 20 low) has resumed, and then further rise could be seen to 0.8000 zone. However, as long as 0.7709 resistance holds, the price action below this level is treated as consolidation of uptrend, one more fall below 0.7450 to complete the consolidation is still possible.
Archive for May, 2009
GBPUSD formed a short term cycle top at 1.5352 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.4943 and 1.5352 is expected in next several days and pullback to 1.5000 zone would more likely be seen later today. As long as 1.4943 support holds, the price action from 1.5352 is treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.4397 and further rally is still possible to 1.5500-1.5600 area after consolidation. However, below 1.4943 will indicate that the uptrend from 1.4397 has completed at 1.5352 level already.
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EURUSD failed to test 1.3738 (Mar 19 high) resistance and formed a short term cycle top at 1.3721 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.3400 and 1.3721 is now in favor and pull back to test the support of the lower border of the price channel is expected later today. Near term resistance is at 1.3721, above this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.2884 has resumed and further rally could be seen to 1.3900 zone.
Being supported by 1.1464 (Nov 5, 2008 low), USDCAD rebounds from 1.1474 level and breaks above the price channel resistance, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.1474 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.1474 and 1.1900 is expected in next several days. However, the rise from 1.1474 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.3063 (Mar 9 high), further fall is still possible after consolidation.
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After touching the upper border of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart, USDCAD pulls back from 1.1697, suggesting that the pair remains in downtrend from 1.2504. The rise from 1.1474 is more likely consolidation of the downtrend. Deeper decline is possible after consolidation, and a break below 1.1474 will signal further fall towards 1.1300 zone. However, a clear break above the channel resistance will take price back to test 1.1824 key resistance.
GBPUSD is in a trading range between 1.4943 and 1.5247. The price action in this range is more likely consolidation of the uptrend from 1.4397. As long as 1.4943 support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume and further rally is still possible to 1.5400-1.5500 area after consolidation. However, below 1.4943 key support will indicate that the rise from 1.4397 has completed at 1.5247 level already, and then pullback to 1.4600- 1.4750 area could be seen.
Being supported by the lower border of the price channel on 4-hour chart, GBPUSD rebounded from 1.4943, suggesting a short term cycle bottom has been formed. Further rally is expected to 1.5400-1.5500 area. Initial support is at the lower border of the price channel and key support is located at 1.4943.
AUDUSD might be forming a short term cycle top at 0.7615 level on 4-hour chart. Pullback towards the lower border of the rising price channel is expected later today. As long as the channel support holds, the fall from 0.7615 is treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 0.6989. However, a clear break below the channel support will indicate that the rise from 0.6989 has completed at 0.7615 already, and then deeper decline could be seen to test 0.7335 key support.
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