USDCAD stays below the falling trend line on 4-hour chart and remains in short term downtrend from 1.2483. Deeper decline is still possible to test the previous low support at 1.1761 (Jan 6 low). Initial resistance is at the falling trend line and key resistance is now at 1.2185, as long as this level holds, downtrend will continue.
Archive for April, 2009
USDCAD remains in short term downtrend from 1.2483. Further fall is still in favor and the next target will be at 1.2000 zone. Initial resistance is at the falling trend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend will continue. Key resistance is at 1.2298, only rise above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.2483 has completed.
GBPUSD breaks above 1.4778 resistance, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.4585 on 4-hour chart. Further rise could be seen to test 1.4957 resistance, a break above this level will signal the resumption of the medium term uptrend from 1.3654 (Mar 11 low), and then the next target would be at 1.5200 level.
USDJPY might be forming a short term cycle bottom at 99.31 level on 4-hour chart. Key resistance is located at 100.85, a break above this level will confirm the cycle bottom. Range trading between 99.31 and 101.43 is expected in next several days. The price action in this range is treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 93.53 (Mar 19 low), we are waiting for a break of 101.43 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.
As expected, EURUSD drops below 1.3112 previous low support, and the fall from 1.3581 extends further to 1.3089 level. Deeper decline is still possible to 1.2900-1.3000 area. Near term resistance is at the falling trend line from 1.3581 to 1.3335, and the key resistance is now located at 1.3335, as long as this level holds, we’d expect the downtrend to continue.
Being contained by the previous low support at 1.3112, EURUSD rebounds from 1.3148 level. The rise is treated as consolidation of the short term downtrend from 1.3581. Deeper decline is still possible after consolidation and the next target would be at 1.2900-1.3000 area. Initial resistance is at 1.3315 and key resistance is at 1.3365, only rise above 1.3365 level will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.3148 already, then further rebound could be seen to test 1.3581 resistance.
AUDUSD breaks below 0.7057 key support, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed at 0.7227 level on 4-hour chart and the short term uptrend from 0.6768 has completed already. Deeper decline is now in favor, and the next target is at 0.6900, below this level will signal further fall to test 0.6768 previous low support. Initial resistance is at 0.7227, only rise above this level will indicate that the medium term uptrend from 0.6284 (Mar 4 low) has resumed.
USDCHF breaks above 1.1389 key resistance and has formed a short term cycle bottom at 1.1240 on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.1240 and 1.1450 could be seen in a couple of days. However, the price action from 1.1356 is more likely consolidation of the downtrend from 1.1548. As long as 1.1548 level holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and further fall towards 1.0000 is possible after consolidation. Key support is now located at 1.1240, a break below this level will signal resumption of the downtrend.
EURUSD formed a short term cycle bottom at 1.3112 level on 4-hour chart. Further rise to 1.3600-1.3700 area to reach the next cycle top is possible in a couple of days. As the next cycle top is nearing, pullback would more likely be seen before breaking above 1.3738 level. However, above 1.3738 level will indicate that the medium term uptrend from 1.2456 (Mar 4 low) has resumed, and then further rally could be seen to 1.4300-1.4500 area.
In case you hadn’t noticed: Over the past year of financial turmoil, the “safe haven” premium of precious metals has offered about as much support as a rubber ducky in a tsunami. Despite a string of powerful rallies, silver and gold remain well below their March 2008 peaks.
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