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Archive for March, 2009

How To Tell a Good Forecast from a Bad One

Saturday, March 7th, 2009

Here’s a forecast for you. Clear and direct. As quoted by a Reuters reporter in his January 15, 2009, article, entitled, "Global Lending Thaw May Yet Return to Deep Freeze."

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Daily Forex Analysis – March 6, 2009

Friday, March 6th, 2009

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY pulls back sharply from 99.67 level. Moving sideways in a range between 96.84 and 99.67 could be seen in next several days. However, the price action from 98.70 is treated as consolidation of the medium term uptrend from 87.12 (Jan 21 low). As long as 96.84 support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume, and one more rise towards 101.00 is still possible after consolidation. Near term resistance is now at 99.67, about this level will signal the resumption of the uptrend.

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Daily Forex Analysis – March 5, 2009

Thursday, March 5th, 2009

USDCAD Analysis.
Being contained by the long term key resistance at 1.3015 (Oct 28, 2008 high), USDCAD pulls back from 1.2973, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed. Consolidation in a range between 1.2500 and 1.2973 is expected before breaking above 1.3015 level. Further rise would more likely be seen after consolidation, and a break above 1.3015 level will signal the resumption of the long term uptrend from 0.9056 (2007 low). However, below 1.2500 will indicate that the pair is back to range trading between 1.1464 (Nov 5, 2008 low) and 1.3015.

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Daily Forex Analysis – March 4, 2009

Wednesday, March 4th, 2009

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD breaks below 1.2512 previous low support, suggesting that the short term downtrend from 1.2898 is underway. Deeper decline is expected to 1.2400 zone in a couple of day. Near term resistance is at the upper border of the falling price channel and key resistance is located at 1.2677, as long as this level holds, we’d expect downtrend from 1.2898 to continue, only rise above 1.2677 level will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed and the fall from 1.2898 has completed.

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Daily Forex Analysis – March 3, 2009

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY is in consolidation of the medium term uptrend from 87.12 (Jan 21 low). Moving sideways in a range between 96.35 and 98.70 is expected in a couple of days. Further rally is still possible after consolidation. A break above 98.70 resistance will signal further rise towards 100.00 zone. Near term support is at 96.35 and key support is located at 95.00, below 95.00 level will indicate that the medium term uptrend from 87.12 has completed.

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Daily Forex Analysis – March 2, 2009

Monday, March 2nd, 2009

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD stays in a trading range between 1.2512 and 1.2991. The fall from 1.2991 could possibly be resumption of the medium term downtrend from 1.4719 (Dec 18, 2008 high). Deeper decline would more likely be seen to 1.2400 zone in a couple of days. Key resistance is located at 1.2991, only rise above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.4719 has completed.

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