Daily Forex Analysis – June 21, 2011

GBPUSD Analysis.
Being contained by 1.6059 support, GBPUSD rebounded from 1.6078, and formed a cycle bottom on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.6078 and 1.6250  is expected in a couple of days. Key resistance is at downtrend line from 1.6546 to 1.6441, as long as the trend line resistance holds, one more fall to re-test 1.6059 support is still possible. However, a clear break above the trend line will indicate that the fall from 1.6546 had completed at 1.6078 already, then another rise towards 1.6745 previous high could be seen.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD broke above the downtrend line on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle bottom had been formed at 1.4073, and the fall from 1.4696 had completed. Further rise would likely be seen in a couple of days, and next target would be at 1.4500 area. Support is now at 1.4185, only break below this level could trigger another fall to re-test 1.3969 support.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
No changed in our view, AUDUSD remains in downtrend from 1.0773, the bounce from 1.0477 is treated as consolidation of downtrend. Resistance is at the upper border of the price channel on 4-hour chart, as long as the channel resistance holds, downtrend could be expected to resume, and another fall to re-test 1.0440 is possible. On the upside, a clear break above the channel will indicate that the fall from 1.0773 had completed at 1.0477 already, then further rise towards 1.1011 previous high could be seen.

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USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD stays above a uptrend line from 0.9444 to 0.9669, and remains in uptrend. As long as the trend line support holds, the fall from 0.9898 is treated as consolidation of uptrend. Another rise towards 1.0000 would likely be seen after consolidation, and a break above 0.9898 could signal resumption of uptrend.

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USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY broke below the uptrend line on 4-hour chart and formed a cycle top at 81.05. Another fall to re-test 79.58 support could be expected later today, a breakdown below this level will target 78.00 area.

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USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF’s fall from 0.8550 extended to as low as 0.8406. However, the fall is treated as consolidation of short term uptrend from 0.8326, another rise to 0.8650-0.8700 area is still possible after consolidation. Key support is at 0.8326, only break below this level could signal resumption of downtrend.

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