Daily Forex Analysis – March 19, 2010

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF broke above 1.0639 resistance, suggesting that a cycle bottom has been formed at 1.0506 level on 4-hour chart. Sideways movement above 1.0506 is expected in a couple of days. Key resistance is now at the falling price channel on 4-hour chart. As long as the channel resistance holds, one more fall towards 1.0450 is possible. However, a clear break above the channel resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.0898 has completed, then the following uptrend could take price back to re-test 1.0898 resistance.

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USDJPY Analysis.
Being contained by 89.63 support, USDJPY bounced from 89.76 level. The pair might be forming a cycle bottom at 89.76 level on 4-hour chart. Another rise to 91.50-92.00 area would more likely be seen. Key support remains at 89.63, only fall below this level could indicate that the bounce from 88.14 has completed at 91.08 level already.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD remains in uptrend from 0.8801. Support is at the lower border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart. As long as the channel support holds, further rally could be expected and next target would be at 93.00, and a break above 0.9250 could signal resumption of uptrend.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD is testing the support of the lower border of the price channel on 4-hour chart. A clear break below the channel support will indicate that the bounce from 1.3435 has completed at 1.3817 already and the fall from 1.3817 may be treated as resumption of downtrend from 1.5144 (Nov 25, 2009 high), then another fall towards 1.3200-1.3300 area could be seen. Resistance is now at 1.3695, only rise above this level will suggest lengthier consolidation in the price channel is underway.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
After breaking above the falling price channel on 4-hour chart, the price action from 1.4784 is treated as in consolidation of long term downtrend from 1.6875 (Nov 16, 2009 high). Further rally is still possible and target would be at 1.5500-1.5600 area. Key support is located at 1.4977, a breakdown below this level will suggest that the long term downtrend has resumed, then another fall towards 1.4500 could be seen.

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USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD remains in downtrend from 1.0679 and the bounce from 1.0070 is treated as consolidation of downtrend. Another fall is still possible after consolidation and next target would be at 1.0000 area. Resistance is at the upper border of the price channel on 4-hour chart, only a clear break above the channel resistance could indicate that the fall from 1.0679 has completed at 1.0070 already.

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