Daily Forex Analysis – December 11, 2008

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY trades in a narrow range between 91.59 and 93.90. The price action from 91.59 is more likely forming consolidation of down trend. Deeper decline is still possible to retest 90.92 (Oct 24 low) support and a break below 91.59 will confirm such case. However, above 93.90 will indicate that the down trend from 100.54 (Nov 4 high) has completed, and the following up trend will bring price back towards 98.00 zone.

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AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD is forming a short term cycle top at 0.6690 on 4-hour chart. Key support is now located at 0.6494, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top, and then deeper decline could be seen to test 0.6292 support. Initial resistance is at 0.6690, only rise above this level will signal further rally towards 1.6800 level.

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GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD is forming a short term cycle top at 1.5048 level on 4-hour chart. Key support is now located at 1.4679, a break down below this level will confirm the cycle top, and then deeper decline could be seen to 1.4000 zone. Initial resistance is now located at 1.5048, above this level will indicate lengthier consolidation of long term down trend is underway, and further rally to retest 1.5534 resistance could be seen to follow.

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EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD is testing 1.3080 previous high resistance. As long as this level holds, we’d expect down trend to resume, and pullback would more likely be seen before breaking above this level. Key support is now located at 1.2799, a break below this level will signal resumption of down trend. However, above 1.3080 level will indicate that the sideways consolidation from 1.2329 (Oct 28 low) has completed, and further rise could be seen to 1.3500 zone.

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USDCHF Analysis.
No changed in our short term outlook, USDCHF is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 1.1828 and 1.2296. The price action from 1.2296 is treated as consolidation of long term up trend, as long as 1.1828 support holds, we’d expect up trend to resume, and further rally could be seen to 1.2500 zone after consolidation.

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USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD is in down trend, and the rebound from 1.2446 is treated as consolidation to down trend. Deeper decline could be seen to test 1.2125 previous low support in a couple of days. A break below 1.2446 level will confirm the resumption of down trend.

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